Twenty Years of Hail, Tariffs, and Colorado Homeowners Insurance

How Colorado got from 2006 to 2026

Worse storms across two decades: the May 8, 2017 Front Range storm at $2.3 billion (the costliest catastrophe in state history); the June 13, 2018 Fountain and Colorado Springs storm at $169 million; the August 6, 2018 Colorado Springs and Cheyenne Mountain Zoo storm at $172.8 million; the August 13, 2019 Bethune state-record 4.83-inch hailstone; the December 30, 2021 Marshall Fire (1,084 structures, $2 billion plus insured losses); the May 30, 2024 Denver-metro hailstorm at over $2 billion; multiple 2025 storms across Colorado Springs, Pueblo, Yuma, and Baca County.

Plus structural roofing inflation: BLS PPI for asphalt-shingle and coating materials roughly doubled from 2006 to 2024 (140 to a record 302.6); OSB and plywood briefly spiked 4 to 6 times in 2020 to 2021; framing lumber added an estimated $14,345 to the cost of an average single-family home from April 2020 to July 2022 (NAHB).

Plus tariffs: Section 232 steel and aluminum (25 percent and 10 percent in 2018, raised to 50 percent each in June 2025); Canadian softwood lumber AD/CVD duties (around 14.54 percent in August 2024, preliminary 24.83 percent in March 2025); a 10 percent Section 232 lumber tariff effective October 14, 2025; a 50 percent copper tariff effective August 1, 2025; IEEPA tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China. NAHB estimated 2025 tariffs added roughly $9,200 to a new single-family home.

Plus COVID supply shocks: U.S. wood production fell 15 percent by April 2020; lumber rose 300 percent; OSB rose up to 510 percent (some products 650 percent); Colorado roofing contractors quoted installation dates 6 to 12 plus months out in 2021 to 2022.

Plus wildfire shock: Marshall Fire (2021), East Troublesome (2020, $543 million), Black Forest (2013, $420.5 million), Waldo Canyon (2012). The Marshall Fire is the single largest catalyst for HB23-1174's underinsurance reforms.

Premium and deductible trends 2018 to 2026

Colorado now ranks 4th to 6th most expensive nationally for homeowners insurance, with average annual premiums of $4,000 to $4,100 for a $300,000 dwelling versus a national average near $2,300 to $3,500.

Premiums roughly doubled (about 100 percent) from 2018 to 2024 per the Governor's office and Division of Insurance, outpacing the national 58 percent increase. RMIIA reported a 57.9 percent increase 2018 to 2023. NBER and escrow data put the 10-year increase at about 137 percent. Insurify projects roughly plus 4 percent in 2026, more moderate than 2025's plus 33 percent.

Deductibles: standard flat $1,000 all-perils deductibles are largely gone for hail-prone Colorado homes. Most policies now carry separate wind and hail percentage deductibles of 1 to 2 percent of Coverage A (sometimes 5 percent for older roofs). A 2 percent deductible on a $500,000 home is $10,000 out of pocket.

Underwriting hardening: what carriers now do

Common changes 2014 to 2026, layered onto most Colorado policies in some combination.

• RCV to ACV at age threshold: many carriers (American Modern, Allstate House and Home since 2011, Farmers, others) trigger ACV-only treatment at 10, 11, 15, or 20 years
• Roof Payment Schedule (RPS) endorsements: depreciated-table payouts independent of actual loss
• Cosmetic Damage Exclusions: deny payment for hail dents on shingles, gutters, vents, and metal panels that do not affect water-shedding function
• Matching limitations: some policies do not require matching siding or shingles on undamaged slopes
• Mandatory pre-bind inspections and aerial, drone, or AI imagery scoring of roof condition
• Roof age caps for new business: several admitted carriers will not write new policies on roofs older than 15 (occasionally older than 10)

Material cost reality, 2019 vs 2025

A typical asphalt-shingle re-roof on a 30-square Front Range home moved from roughly $8,000 to $11,000 in 2019 to $14,000 to $22,000 in 2024 to 2025. That is a 60 to 100 percent increase, closely aligning with PPI doublings, NAHB lumber math, contractor surveys, and Xactimate Colorado price-list updates. Class 4 upgrade adds typically $50 per square on Xactimate and 10 to 20 percent to total cost.

One Colorado contractor documented Owens Corning Oakridge 30-year shingle costs rising from $26 per bundle in 2020 to $39 per bundle in 2022 (plus 50 percent), equating to $1,560 more on a 40-square roof. NRCA cited construction-material prices 24.4 percent higher year-over-year in early 2022.

The Colorado regulatory response

SB12-038 (2012, the Residential Roofing Bill of Rights) banned roofers from waiving or rebating insurance deductibles, required written contracts, 72-hour rescission, and trust accounts.

HB23-1174 (2023) extended cancellation and non-renewal notice from 30 to 60 days, required guaranteed and extended replacement-cost offers (50 percent or more) plus ordinance and law (20 percent), and mandated an annual reconstruction-cost report (first report April 2025).

HB23-1288 (2023) created the Colorado FAIR Plan; residential applications opened April 10, 2025. Coverage is ACV only, capped at $750,000 residential and $2 million commercial, with three private declinations required.

HB23-1240 (2023) provides a sales-tax exemption on wildfire-rebuild materials through 2028.

HB25-1182 (2025) requires wildfire risk-model transparency, score appeal rights, and mandatory mitigation discounts (effective July 2025).

HB25-1302 and SB-155 (and 2026 follow-on bills) create grant programs to subsidize Class 4 and fortified roofs, funded by a roughly 0.5 percent per-policy fee on insurers (around $20 million per year potential).

April 2026 Roadmap to Reduce Homeowners Insurance (Polis and Conway) targets dropping Colorado from the 6th to the 13th most expensive state, with roughly $800 per year savings.

What this means for buyers, sellers, and Realtors

Insurance is now a deal-shaping issue. Roof age, prior hail claims, material type, and ZIP-code wildfire and hail score commonly affect insurability, escrow payments, appraisal subject-to repairs, closing timelines, and seller concessions. Many carriers will not bind a new policy for closing if the roof exceeds a 15-year (sometimes 10-year) threshold without inspection or replacement.

Premium hikes of $100 to $300 per month at renewal materially raise PITI and have caused delinquency stress in some markets. Sellers with 15-year-old roofs are increasingly being asked for full or partial roof replacement, deductible credits, or price concessions. FHA, VA, and conventional appraisers commonly call out hail-damaged roofs.

What is contested or uncertain

The isolated effect of any single tariff on Colorado homeowner premiums has not been rigorously measured. Most credible analyses (Tax Foundation, USITC, NAHB, Peterson Institute) treat tariffs as one of several inflationary factors, not the dominant driver of property-insurance premium increases.

Whether COVID demand effects (real-estate boom, remodeling) or supply effects (mill closures) were the larger force remains debated; ScienceDirect and Forest Service research suggests demand was actually larger.

Whether social inflation (litigation, claim-severity assumption changes) is a meaningful Colorado-specific premium driver is contested between industry groups and consumer advocates.